National Liberal Party (NLP) leader Augustus Kyalo Muli has dismissed former Deputy President Rigathi Gachaguaโs endorsement of Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka for the 2027 presidential race, terming it a calculated political strategy designed to serve Mr Gachaguaโs long-term ambitions rather than propel Mr Musyoka to State House.
In a sharply worded political analysis released on Friday, Mr Muli argued that Kenyaโs electoral history, voting patterns and Mt Kenya succession dynamics make the โKalonzo Toshaโ narrative difficult to sustain.
โFor months, Rigathi Gachagua has been touring the country declaring support for Kalonzo Musyoka on grounds that โKenya owes himโ,โ Mr Muli said.
โBut Kenyan politics has a playbook โ and Gachagua is running page one: use the old man, dump him later.โ
Dr Muli questioned the sincerity of Mr Gachaguaโs sudden alliance with the Wiper leader, pointing to his past remarks while serving as Deputy President, where he allegedly described Mr Musyoka as politically weak and unable to consolidate the Kamba vote.
According to the NLP leader, the only significant shift has been Mr Gachaguaโs political circumstances following his fallout with President William Ruto.โThe only thing that changed is Gachaguaโs address โ from Karen as Deputy President to Wamunyoro,โ he said.
Mr Muli further argued that historical voting trends in Mt Kenya present a major hurdle for Mr Musyoka, even with Mr Gachaguaโs backing.
He cited the 2013 General Election, where the Uhuru KenyattaโWilliam Ruto ticket dominated the region while the Raila OdingaโKalonzo Musyoka alliance struggled to surpass 15 per cent support in several counties. In Nyeri, the Raila-Kalonzo ticket garnered less than 10 per cent, while their opponents secured more than 89 per cent.
The margins widened further in the 2017 election.
โIf Kalonzo could not crack 15 per cent in Mt Kenya as Railaโs running mate, Gachagua cannot magically transform him into a 50 per cent-plus-one presidential candidate,โ Mr Muli argued.
He warned that aggressively pushing a Kalonzo presidency in Mt Kenya could politically backfire on Mr Gachagua.
โVoters in the region may interpret it as selling out politically โ and no politician commits political suicide to make another man President,โ he said.
Mr Muli linked the former Deputy Presidentโs current positioning to the 2032 succession race, arguing that Mr Gachagua is still nurturing his own presidential ambitions.
At 61, he noted, Mr Gachagua would remain a competitive candidate by 2032.โYou do not build State House for another man if you intend to occupy it yourself later,โ Mr Muli said.
He suggested a more plausible scenario in which Mr Gachagua backs Mr Musyoka in 2027, allows him to lose, then repositions himself as Mt Kenyaโs leading presidential contender ahead of 2032.
Mr Muli also compared the emerging alliance to past political arrangements in Kenya, where regional kingpins were used to consolidate votes but ultimately fell short of ascending to national leadership.
He cited former Vice Presidents Michael Wamalwa Kijana and Kalonzo Musyoka, as well as ANC leader Musalia Mudavadi, as examples of leaders who played pivotal coalition roles without inheriting state power.
โKenya has seen this movie before,โ he said.
The NLP leader further dismissed comparisons between the โKalonzo Toshaโ narrative and Raila Odingaโs โKibaki Toshaโ declaration in 2002.
He argued that Mr Odinga at the time sacrificed his own presidential ambitions, folded his political machinery into the National Rainbow Coalition, and campaigned fully for Mwai Kibaki under a structured agreement โ unlike Mr Gachaguaโs current approach.
โHe says Kalonzo for President one day and Gachagua for President the next,โ Mr Muli said.
Mr Muli challenged the former Deputy President to actively campaign for Mr Musyoka in Nyeri and across Mt Kenya if his endorsement is genuine.
He also urged Kamba voters to shift from reliance on external endorsements and instead leverage their vote as political capital.
โKalonzo can become President, but only if the Kamba community stops begging for endorsement and starts negotiating from a position of strength,โ he said.
The remarks come amid intensifying political realignments as leaders position themselves ahead of what is expected to be a fiercely contested 2027 presidential election.
