Uganda’s 2026 presidential election has entered a decisive and increasingly volatile phase following the release of the fourth provisional results by the Electoral Commission (EC), which show President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni extending a commanding lead as political tensions escalate across the country.
As of 6:00 PM on Friday, January 16, 2026, the EC confirmed that 8,135,089 valid votes had been tallied from 35,491 polling stations, accounting for 69.95 per cent of all polling stations nationwide. According to the latest update, President Museveni is leading the race with 74.92 per cent of the vote, placing him firmly on course for another term as counting continues.
The announcement came against the backdrop of heightened security measures, particularly at the Magere residence of National Unity Platform (NUP) presidential candidate Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu, popularly known as Bobi Wine. Reports indicate a heavy deployment of security personnel around the home, with a surveillance drone reportedly seen hovering above the compound, a development that has intensified claims of intimidation and effective house arrest.
The opposition has reacted sharply to the fourth provisional release, rejecting the results and questioning the credibility of the electoral process. NUP officials argue that the Electoral Commission is releasing figures without sufficient transparency and have raised concerns over alleged irregularities, including voter intimidation and interference with opposition agents. They insist the provisional results do not reflect the will of the Ugandan electorate.
The broader electoral environment remains tense, with reports of election-related violence, including fatalities in parts of the country. The situation has been further complicated by a nationwide internet shutdown imposed ahead of polling day, a move that has drawn criticism from civil society organisations and international observers who say it undermines transparency and public confidence in the process.
Security forces remain on high alert in Kampala and other major urban centres as authorities brace for potential unrest while the tallying process continues. The Electoral Commission has indicated that the next provisional update will be released at 10:00 PM, as more results are verified and added to the national tally.
While President Museveni’s lead appears overwhelming at this stage, the growing mistrust, heavy security presence, and outright rejection of the process by the opposition suggest that Uganda’s 2026 presidential election is unfolding as one of the most contested and closely watched in the country’s recent history.
