For years, Kitui East MP Nimrod Mbai built his political identity on fierce attacks against the Wiper Democratic Movement and its party leader, Kalonzo Musyoka.
He once warned Wiper leaders against setting foot in Kitui East to campaign for party candidates and openly challenged Kalonzo’s political influence in the constituency, branding the party’s leadership as outdated and ineffective.
Today, however, the outspoken legislator appears to be speaking a different political language.
A series of undated recordings released over the past days has triggered intense political debate across Ukambani, raising one question that could define Kitui East politics ahead of the 2027 General Election:
Is Nimrod Mbai quietly preparing to cross political lines to Wiper, or is he simply softening his tone in a calculated bid for political survival?
A Different Nimrod Mbai Emerges
In the recordings, the self-declared “political mafia” of Kitui East discusses Wiper politics in Kitui County and the future of the Kamba community.
What has surprised many is not what he says—but how he says it.
Gone are the blistering attacks against Kalonzo Musyoka.
Instead, Mbai carefully cautions the Wiper leader against endorsing what he terms as unpopular candidates who lack grassroots support in Kitui East.
Although he never mentions names, political observers believe the remarks were directed at former Kitui East MP , who has already declared his intention to reclaim the parliamentary seat in 2027.
Mbai argues that some politicians only seek Kalonzo’s endorsement during election seasons but do little to defend the political interests of the Kamba community nationally.
Yet perhaps the biggest surprise comes when Mbai repeatedly refers to Kalonzo as “our father.”
For a politician who has spent years publicly criticizing Kalonzo’s leadership, the respectful tone has sparked speculation that the MP is deliberately lowering political temperatures.
He also unexpectedly praises , saying he learnt from the Kitui Central legislator the importance of equitable distribution of NG-CDF resources and prudent management of public funds.
Mbai says those lessons helped him earn the trust of Kitui East voters and secure another parliamentary term.
The remarks have been interpreted by some observers as an indirect endorsement of Makali, who is expected to seek the Kitui gubernatorial seat on a Wiper ticket in 2027.
From Political Firebrand to Political Diplomat?
The latest recordings stand in sharp contrast to Mbai’s previous political posture.
For years, he openly challenged Wiper’s dominance in Kitui East and repeatedly warned party supporters against bringing Kalonzo’s campaigns into the constituency.
Today, however, every criticism directed at the Wiper leader appears measured and carefully chosen.
Political analysts believe that is not accidental.
The Numbers Behind Mbai’s Rise
Mbai first shocked Kitui East politics in the 2017 General Election.
Running on a Jubilee Party ticket against experienced local politicians, he produced one of the biggest political upsets in Kitui County.
Official election records show Mbai garnered 14,330 votes to defeat Millitonic Kitute, who received 11,432 votes, while former MP Major (Rtd.) Mutua Muluvi managed 5,655 votes.
Political observers say Mbai’s victory was aided by a fragmented opposition vote, allowing him to capitalize on divisions among his rivals.
Five years later, in 2022, Mbai successfully defended the parliamentary seat—this time on a UDA ticket—despite facing a resurgent Wiper movement that swept most elective positions across Kitui County.
Five years later, in the 2022 General Election, Mbai successfully defended the Kitui East parliamentary seat on a United Democratic Alliance (UDA) ticket, securing 14,256 votes. He defeated his closest challenger, Militonic Mwendwa Kitute of NARC, who garnered 10,899 votes, while former MP Major (Rtd.) Mutua Muluvi, running as an Independent candidate, finished third with 5,436 votes. Other candidates shared the remaining votes.
The results demonstrated that despite a strong anti-government wave across Ukambani, Mbai’s personal political network, incumbency advantage and development record enabled him to withstand the challenge and secure a second consecutive term.
Why 2027 Could Be His Toughest Election
The political arithmetic heading into 2027 is markedly different.
Unlike 2017, when the opposition vote was split among several candidates, Wiper is expected to rally behind a single candidate—former MP Kiema Kilonzo.
Kiema is widely expected to benefit from the full backing of Kalonzo Musyoka and Wiper’s formidable grassroots machinery across Kitui East.
Political analyst believes this explains Mbai’s new political tone.
Speaking exclusively to Channel 15 News, Mativo argues that the MP understands the changing political realities.
“This is political survival. Mbai understands that Kalonzo remains the most influential political figure in Ukambani. Continuing to attack him while seeking a third term on a UDA ticket would only deepen political hostility. These recordings are designed to reduce that bad blood,” Mativo said.
He predicts that if Kalonzo leads or plays a central role in a united opposition in 2027, Wiper could once again dominate voting patterns across Lower Eastern, making life significantly more difficult for UDA candidates.
Voices From Kitui East
To gauge public opinion, Channel 15 News spoke to residents from different parts of Kitui East.
In Zombe, one voter said the constituency is ready for fresh leadership and believes Kiema Kilonzo has the political experience to reclaim the seat under Wiper.
A resident in Chuluni echoed similar sentiments, saying Wiper remains the natural political home for most voters and that Kalonzo’s influence will be difficult to overcome.
However, a resident from Mwitika offered a different perspective, arguing that Mbai should never be underestimated.
According to the voter, the MP’s visible development projects and direct engagement with constituents still give him a realistic chance of securing a third consecutive term.
The Bigger Political Picture
Beyond Kitui East, analysts say the battle reflects a broader political struggle unfolding across Ukambani.
Historically, the region has consistently voted overwhelmingly for opposition parties at the presidential level, making it one of Kenya’s strongest opposition strongholds.
That voting pattern has often placed candidates allied to the national government at a disadvantage.
If Kalonzo Musyoka is on the presidential ballot—or leads a united opposition coalition in 2027—analysts believe Wiper candidates could enjoy an even stronger electoral wave across Kitui County.
For Mbai, who has built his political career by defying conventional political wisdom, the stakes have never been higher.
His recent recordings may represent genuine political maturity.
Or they may be the opening moves in a carefully calculated survival strategy designed to ease tensions with the one political force capable of determining his future.
Whatever the case, one thing is already clear.
The battle for Kitui East has begun long before the first campaign posters have been printed, and the contest between Nimrod Mbai and Kiema Kilonzo is shaping up to be one of the defining parliamentary races of Kenya’s 2027 General Election.
