Kenya’s political landscape is showing signs of a significant realignment ahead of the 2027 General Election, with new opinion poll findings highlighting growing competition between established political parties and emerging political formations.
A nationwide party-affiliation survey published in October placed the Linda Mwananchi Movement, associated with Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, ahead of President William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA), while the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) recorded a considerably lower rating.
According to the October survey reported by The Standard, Linda Mwananchi attracted 25 per cent support, compared with UDA’s 23 per cent. The Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP), associated with former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, followed at nine per cent.
📊 Channel 15 News Opinion Poll
ODM and the Wiper Democratic Movement each recorded eight per cent, while Jubilee Party attracted seven per cent. Another 16 per cent of respondents said they were undecided about their political affiliation.
The findings present a challenging political environment for traditional parties as new formations seek to establish themselves ahead of the next electoral contest.
ODM’s declining fortunes
The latest figures come amid persistent divisions within ODM over its relationship with President Ruto’s administration and the party’s political direction ahead of 2027.
The emergence of Linda Mwananchi has added another layer to the internal contest, with Sifuna and other prominent leaders advocating a more independent opposition approach.
A separate TIFA Research survey conducted between June 13 and June 22, 2026, found that 74 per cent of ODM supporters identified with Linda Mwananchi, compared with 20 per cent who backed the rival Linda Ground faction associated with the party’s mainstream leadership.
The findings highlighted the extent to which ODM’s internal disagreements had extended into its support base.
UDA and the 2027 equation
For UDA, the changing political alignments come as the ruling party faces competition from both established opposition parties and emerging political movements.
Although the October survey placed UDA second nationally, TIFA’s June findings had ranked ODM ahead of the ruling party, with 20 per cent against UDA’s 17 per cent.
The differing results underline the fluid nature of political affiliations and the importance of examining polling trends against their respective survey dates.
With the 2027 elections approaching, the emerging political formations, internal party disputes and shifting voter loyalties are likely to remain central to Kenya’s political debate.
However, party popularity figures should not be mistaken for voting intentions, with the undecided electorate potentially influencing the political landscape as campaigns gather momentum.
The next election cycle is therefore shaping up against a backdrop of changing political identities and increasingly competitive party politics.
