Ugandans are expected to know who their next president will be on Saturday, but the announcement is already clouded by controversy after early results showed President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni taking the lead while his main challenger, Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu (Bobi Wine), remains under de facto house arrest following a chaotic and tightly controlled election day.
Late Thursday night, Uganda Electoral Commission Chairperson Justice Simon Byabakama announced the first preliminary presidential results from 133 polling stations, marking the beginning of official tallying in an election marred by restrictions, delays and allegations of manipulation.
According to the Commission, Museveni was leading with 14,232 votes (61.7 per cent), followed by Bobi Wine with 7,753 votes (33.64 per cent). Other candidates, including Nandala Mafabi, Mugisha Muntu and Mubarak Munyagwa, trailed far behind.
The Electoral Commission said 23,845 ballots had so far been counted, including 23,049 valid votes, alongside 796 invalid ballots and 37 spoilt votes, with the next update expected at 9:00 AM on January 16, 2026.
The release of the early results came against the backdrop of dramatic election-day developments that have raised serious concerns about the credibility of the process. As voting continued on Thursday, heavily armed police and military officers surrounded Bobi Wine’s residence, effectively placing him and his wife under house arrest.
The National Unity Platform said security officers jumped over the perimeter fence, sealed off access roads and erected tents inside the compound, a move the opposition described as illegal and intended to neutralize their candidate at a critical moment.
The vote itself unfolded under a nationwide internet and mobile data blackout, ordered by the government ahead of polling. While authorities defended the shutdown as a security measure, critics argue it crippled transparency by blocking independent reporting, restricting communication among polling agents and preventing real-time verification of results.
Across the country, voting was further disrupted by biometric voter verification machine failures, forcing many polling stations to rely on manual voter registers. Even President Museveni acknowledged the scale of the technical problems, saying he personally faced difficulties while voting. Although he insisted the glitches were operational and not deliberate, the admission reinforced opposition claims that the process was deeply flawed.
Bobi Wine and the NUP accused state authorities of massive ballot stuffing, voter intimidation and the arrest or abduction of polling agents and senior party officials, including regional leaders. Museveni has dismissed the allegations and countered by accusing the opposition of planning to rig the election, deepening the political standoff at a time when public trust is already fragile.
As Uganda waits for more results to be announced and for Saturday’s final declaration, the image of an opposition presidential candidate confined to his home, combined with an internet blackout, acknowledged technical failures and early results released from a small fraction of polling stations, continues to cast a long shadow over the process.
For many Ugandans, the question is no longer just who is winning, but whether the final outcome will truly reflect the will of the people.
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