Raila Odinga’s passing marks the end of an extraordinary political chapter — five presidential attempts across three decades (1997, 2007, 2013, 2017 and 2022) that defined Kenya’s opposition politics and shaped alliances across generations. Throughout that journey, one man stood beside him longer than anyone else — Kalonzo Musyoka — who backed Raila in three of those bids and spent more than fifteen years in the trenches of opposition politics.
Yet despite spending years battling government from outside, Raila always found his way back in through power-sharing and handshake politics — the nusu mkate coalition with Mwai Kibaki in 2008, the handshake with Uhuru Kenyatta in 2018, and most recently, the “broad-based government” arrangement with President William Ruto.
With Raila’s political story now concluded, Kenya’s opposition map is being redrawn. The vacuum he leaves has set the stage for a fresh scramble for influence — particularly in Ukambani, one of the most loyal voting blocs that powered Raila’s previous campaigns and remains a decisive factor in any national contest.
Kalonzo Musyoka: The Last Keeper of Baba’s Flame
For decades, Kalonzo has been the face of Ukambani politics and a dependable ally in national coalitions. His Wiper Party remains deeply rooted across Kitui, Machakos, and Makueni — where he delivered Raila’s bulk votes in 2022. Official IEBC data shows that while William Ruto managed about 250,000 votes across the region — roughly 89,000 in Kitui, 101,000 in Machakos, and 59,000 in Makueni — Raila still dominated the three counties, proving that the Lower Eastern region still leans opposition.
But beneath Kalonzo’s long-standing dominance, a new and energetic political current is emerging.
Enter Dr Augustus Kyalo Muli and the NLP Surge
Over the past two years, Dr Augustus Kyalo Muli’s National Liberal Party (NLP) has rapidly built momentum across Ukambani. With an estimated 250,000 registered members — roughly equivalent to the votes Ruto secured in the region during the last general election — the NLP is positioning itself as the new political home for those seeking a fresh regional voice.
Dr Muli, a reform-minded strategist with a growing grassroots network, has branded NLP as an alternative to both Wiper and Kenya Kwanza. His message of clean politics, economic fairness, and generational change has resonated particularly among young professionals, civic leaders, and disenchanted Wiper supporters. In areas such as Mwingi North, Kitui South, and Machakos Town, NLP activities are becoming increasingly visible, suggesting the party is no longer a fringe outfit but a growing political force capable of tilting the balance of power in Ukambani.
This rise has created quiet anxiety both in Kalonzo’s Wiper ranks and in Kenya Kwanza circles.
Ruto’s Dilemma: The Ukambani Equation
For President William Ruto, the Ukambani vote remains a delicate but vital equation. The 250,000 votes he collected from the region in 2022 were instrumental in securing his slim national margin, and any shift could dramatically alter his 2027 re-election path.
Inside State House, there is recognition that Ukambani cannot be taken for granted. Development projects — roads, water infrastructure, and select appointments — have been directed to the region as part of what some insiders describe as “political soft diplomacy.” Yet even as the government tries to project inclusivity, the political reality on the ground suggests the region could easily swing back into full opposition mode if Kalonzo and Muli find common ground.
That leaves Ruto at a crossroads. Whether he reaches out to Dr Muli in a pragmatic gesture of political accommodation or ignores the emerging movement altogether could define how Kenya Kwanza performs in the Lower Eastern region in 2027. Either decision carries risk — co-opting NLP may ensure short-term stability but could antagonize UDA loyalists who see the region as a natural expansion zone, while ignoring it could hand the opposition a unified front.
A Shifting Opposition Landscape
At the national level, the vacuum left by Raila has opened the door for younger opposition figures like ODM Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna and Embakasi East MP Babu Owino. Both have in recent months rallied behind Kalonzo Musyoka as a unifying figure for the post-Raila era. Their growing national appeal, combined with Kalonzo’s structure and Muli’s regional momentum, presents the possibility of a revitalized, broad-based opposition capable of challenging Ruto’s hold on power.
What makes this moment different is that, unlike the past where opposition forces rallied solely around Raila’s personality, the emerging structure seems more diversified — drawing on regional power centers, generational change, and new political formations like NLP.
The Road to 2027
The path ahead is uncertain but decisive. If President Ruto manages to keep NLP politically neutral or aligned with his administration, he could maintain a strong foothold in Ukambani. If Kalonzo Musyoka and Dr Augustus Muli manage to strike a working alliance, the region could vote almost as one, creating a formidable challenge for the ruling coalition. However, should mistrust and rivalry persist between the two, the vote will remain fragmented, diluting the region’s bargaining power and giving Kenya Kwanza room to maneuver.
What is evident is that Ukambani politics is entering a new era — one less defined by history and more by negotiation, generational realignment, and political math.
The Bottom Line
Raila Odinga’s legacy was built on resilience, reform, and the art of coalition. In the post-Baba landscape, Ukambani has emerged as the next big political battleground. Kalonzo Musyoka stands as the region’s senior statesman; Dr Augustus Muli represents the rising reformist energy; and William Ruto remains the calculating incumbent eager to hold ground.
As Kenya drifts toward 2027, the question is no longer who replaces Raila in the opposition, but who commands Ukambani — because whoever wins that contest could hold the key to Kenya’s next presidency.
Analysis By Erastus Maleve -Channel 15 News Editor
